A few decades ago, when only around 10 percent of people in England chose not to have children, population growth was minimal. Currently, around 20 percent of people in England are choosing not to have children. Clearly, the population of England would decrease significantly without immigration.
The argument is most vulnerable to which of the following criticisms?
It overlooks the possibility that the percentage of recent immigrants to England who are choosing to have children is greater than the percentage of all people in England who are.
It overlooks the possibility that the number of children per parent in England has increased significantly over the past few decades.
It presupposes that a decrease in the population of England would be considered negative rather than positive for the country.
It neglects to consider the fact that England’s population is greater than it was a few decades ago.
It assumes without sufficient warrant that, at its current pace, immigration to England will keep the population at its current level.
Text Solution:
Premise 1: When only 10% of people in England chose not to have children, population growth was minimal.
Premise 2: Currently, 20% of people in England are choosing not to have children.
Conclusion: The population of England would decrease significantly without immigration.
The logic of the conclusion is straightforward.
When 10% of people did not have children, population growth was minimal.
So, if 20% of people are not having children, it makes sense that the population would significantly decrease without immigration.
The correct answer will describe a flaw in the support for the conclusion.
(A) It overlooks the possibility that the percentage of recent immigrants to England who are choosing to have children is greater than the percentage of all people in England who are.
This choice brings up irrelevant mathematical information.
Regardless of the percentage of immigrants having children, the premise remains true:
Currently, around 20 percent of people in England are choosing not to have children.
If anything, this choice supports the conclusion.
Without immigration, the percentage of people not having children would be even higher. So, the population would be more likely to decrease significantly.
Thus, the argument is not vulnerable to this criticism.
CORRECT ANSWER(B) It overlooks the possibility that the number of children per parent in England has increased significantly over the past few decades.
This choice describes a flaw in the support for the author’s conclusion.
If the number of children per parent has increased significantly, then the birth rate could be greater now than in the past. In this case, the population could stay the same or even increase without immigration.
Thus, the decrease in the percentage of people having children would no longer support the conclusion that England’s population would decrease significantly without immigration.
So, the argument is vulnerable to this criticism.
(C) It presupposes that a decrease in the population of England would be considered negative rather than positive for the country.
This choice describes something the argument does not do.
It is true that the passage provides no information about how people would feel about a population decrease.
However, not providing this information is not a flaw in the argument.
People’s feelings have no bearing on the actual effect of immigration on population growth. That is, England’s population could decrease significantly regardless of whether people consider the decrease positive or negative for the country.
Thus, the argument is not vulnerable to this criticism.
(D) It neglects to consider the fact that England’s population is greater than it was a few decades ago.
This choice brings up irrelevant mathematical information.
The current population is irrelevant to whether England’s population would decrease without immigration. After all, a decrease in the percentage of people having children has the same effect regardless of population size.
So, a smaller percentage of people having children could decrease population growth whether the population is higher or lower now.
Thus, the argument is not vulnerable to this criticism.
(E) It assumes without sufficient warrant that, at its current pace, immigration to England will keep the population at its current level.
This choice describes something the argument does not do.
The passage presents no information about the net effect of immigration on population.
Remember, the conclusion is that the population would decrease significantly without immigration. This conclusion could be valid even if the current pace of immigration would not keep the population at the current level.
If the current pace of immigration would lead to a slight population decrease, the argument works.
Similarly, if the current pace of immigration would lead to a population increase, the argument works.
Thus, the argument is not vulnerable to this criticism.
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